Unconfirmed reports started appearing on my Twitter feed late Thursday night claiming that Iranian Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani and six others were killed in a strike at Baghdad Airport. Big if true, as they say. But was it? I knew previous presidents had declined to target Soleimani before because of the risk of backlash. I resisted the urge to retweet the early claims and started sifting for the clues in the public reporting that would tell me whether or not what I was hearing was true.
I spent a part of my career as a CIA military analyst working on the Middle East. I am not an Iran expert, but I know from experience what steps to take to make sense of a quickly moving event. I offer some of those same steps to all those who are trying to understand what occurred in Iraq, what it all means, and what may happen next.
First and foremost, take your time. Social media often rewards the quick hot take rather than the careful, nuanced analysis. That means the first take you see is often unreliable, in part because they are usually a first emotional reaction and also because information is usually still coming in. With an event as significant at the strike in Iran, focus on facts at the outset. Don’t worry yet about what it means; ask whether it actually happened. Then share only information that you’re confident is accurate. One way to do that is to check to see if multiple news outlets are reporting the same thing.
Find good sources of information. Whenever there is a significant event, social media is suddenly awash with self-proclaimed experts. Don’t mistake their confidence for expertise or experience in the subject matter. Reliable sources of information will have a demonstrated track-record of professional work on the issue and a deep understanding of historical, cultural, and geopolitical factors at play. They will also be able to cite the sources underpinning their information and assessments.
Take the time to go through news articles looking at who is publishing the information, who wrote the article, and when it was written. Old news unrelated to the current event is frequently recycled on social media at the onset of a big story by individuals who either know it is misleading to do so, or by those who did not first check the date of the content and legitimately believe it is relevant to the current issue at hand. They might share an article about a years-old military strike as if it just happened. If someone is sharing old news as if it is current, that suggests they are not a good source for information. Make sure you are looking at the latest information. The best sources have spoken recently to people involved in the news that’s breaking.
Dive into the history. Most geopolitical issues are not black and white, and have not been for a long time. Those good sources of information can help point you to relevant reading. When trying to anticipate the potential impact of the strike on Soleimani, it is critical to understand the history of U.S.-Iran relations, Iran’s evolving role in the region, and its domestic political situation. I realized quickly I needed a better grounding in Soleimani’s rise to leading the Quds Force, a trusted expert I followed on Iran pointed me toward an extensive New Yorker profile of him from 2013.
Update your understanding, constantly. Breaking news moves and changes rapidly. When there is a new event, media outlets are under the gun to report on it as soon as they have it, but their reports can change as they update the information after they have heard from other sources and gather new information. In Soleimani’s case, initial reports omitted his death entirely, saying only that a senior Iraqi militia commander had been killed. Imagine if you’d stopped reading then! For rapidly changing events, keep in mind that what you reading may not be completely accurate. Consider waiting to share the information until there is a clearer picture of what is happening.
Remember some of what you read is probably wrong, some of it deliberately so. Some people will unknowingly spread false information, while others will do it deliberately, often for political reasons. On social media, you will often see accounts claiming to have information or photos from the scene, but they turn out to be edited or taken from another event altogether. By Friday, there were already false claims on Twitter claiming a U.S. military base was bombed by accounts using older photos and video of a completely separate incident. For that reason, it is important to stick to news sources you trust.
Recognize that there are many possible outcomes. National security agencies have spent years gaming out the various ways this exact event might play out and its consequences, both for the region and globally. That is because there are so many political, economic, and cultural factors involve and countries with a stake in the outcome that the consequences of the strike, such as the possibility of Iran’s retaliating, could vary any number of ways. As a result, be wary of those who confidently say there is only one way this conflict will go. Additionally, when countries are engaging in a conflict, they often resort to rhetorical chest-thumping in attempt to discourage or intimate their opponents, which may or may not mean they will actually take action. The reality is we are most likely to experience the consequences of an action like for years to come, playing out in many different ways. Finding the truth is a long-term commitment.
Cindy L. Otis is a former CIA officer who now works in cybersecurity. Her new book, “ True or False: A CIA Analyst’s Guide to Spotting Fake News ,” will be published in May. Follow her on Twitter: @CindyOtis_.
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January 08, 2020 at 01:12AM
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How to Read the Iran News Like a CIA Analyst - Barron's
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