DETROIT — Democrats have started loose discussions about how to get Bernie Sanders out of the race if he gets steamrolled in Tuesday night’s primaries.
More than two dozen political operatives and delegate experts agreed in interviews that a walloping in Michigan and Mississippi and a tight finish in Washington state would all but close Sanders’ path to the nomination.
But there’s disagreement within the party over how — or even whether — to try to prod Sanders to clear the way for Joe Biden. Democrats agree they want to avoid a repeat of 2016’s prolonged primary and risk turning over a bloodied and bruised nominee to face off against President Donald Trump. Singed by the devastating general election loss four years ago, some Democrats say they refuse to go down that road again.
But others say Sanders has signaled that this time will be different — that he’s far more likely to jump than wait to get pushed. A scenario in which Sanders voluntarily quits — regardless of how long it takes — is the best way Democrats could coax his supporters to coalesce behind Biden, some Democrats argue.
Ohio Rep. Marcia Fudge said if the polls are right and Biden wins big in Michigan and elsewhere tonight, Sanders should consider dropping out.
“I think then Sen. Sanders is pragmatic enough to understand that there is no path,” Fudge said. “If in fact, he wants to let the people speak, the people have spoken. I would certainly hope that he would then do what is best for the party and what is best for the country. I would just believe that he is a strong enough politician to know when it is time to fold his hand.”
“The problem is math,” she added, then speaking of the number of delegates needed to clinch the nomination, she said, “He can’t get to 1991, you can’t win. It’s real simple.”
A loss in Michigan would be particularly damaging to Sanders. Aside from the 125 delegates up for grabs, the state has long long held symbolic significance to Sanders because of his triumph over Clinton here four years ago and its importance as a general election battleground. In addition, a lopsided loss in Mississippi and even a narrow win in Washington state could undermine Sanders’ argument that he’s best positioned to counter Trump because his candidacy attracts new voters.
One delegate expert said if the race stays on its current course, Sanders will find it increasingly difficult to make up the delegate gap.
“Biden will be the presumptive nominee after Florida. It’s kind of there already but nobody’s using those explicit words,” Matt Seyfang, a delegate expert who worked for Pete Buttigieg’s campaign. “You start to run out of scenarios where Bernie can make up the gap. It’s really hard to see a scenario where he can net out so many delegates.”
The major caveat with the calculation is that polling has been very wrong in the past. In 2016, pollsters predicted Hillary Clinton would win big in Michigan. Instead, Sanders eked out a win in the state, breathing new life into his campaign and dragging out the fight for another month. If Sanders does better than expected in Michigan on Tuesday then moves into a weekend debate against Biden, it could give him renewed momentum.
The fear among some Democrats is that Sanders and his supporters could do damage waging a fruitless battle against Biden at the same time Trump and Republicans are attacking him. While the Democratic National Committee has not intervened in the primary in the past, the party’s flagship super PAC, Priorities USA, is now preparing to provide air cover for Biden against the Republican onslaught.
“No one wants to repeat the political sins of 2016 because we all know there’s little to no education in the second kick of the mule," said Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright. "The stakes are too high for the Democrats to do anything but to be one band, one sound to go into the most politically consequential election of some of our lifetimes.”
Sanders in recent days has blamed “the establishment” for pressuring Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg to drop out and endorse Biden on the eve of Super Tuesday. Both candidates suffered major losses in South Carolina and were already struggling to raise money.
Democrats said they have to avoid feeding any narrative that the Democratic establishment pushed Sanders out.
“Throughout this primary it’s Democratic voters who dictated the contours of this race and there’s really no role for Democratic leaders to engage in any public pressure campaign,” said Neera Tanden, the President of the Center for American Progress. “The primaries will play themselves out tonight and in the future.”
The Sanders campaign did not respond for comment.
Even if Sanders loses big on Tuesday and his future looks grim, a Sanders senior aide who spoke on condition of anonymity said it would be difficult to envision the Vermont senator passing up Sunday’s debate in Arizona.
“I can’t imagine him dropping out without getting his chance to get this guy one on one in a debate,” the Sanders aide said.
And Sanders himself has hinted he’s not preparing for a drawn-out fight.
"I'm not a masochist who wants to stay in a race that can't be won. But right now, that's a little bit premature,” Sanders told ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos on Sunday. “Let's not determine what will happen on Tuesday and what will happen in the future.”
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March 11, 2020 at 04:13AM
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Democrats weigh how to get Sanders out if he loses Tuesday - POLITICO
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