Opinion | How Has Your State Reacted to Social Distancing? - The New York Times

Change in distance traveled each day

Traveled less than normal

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Change in distance traveled each day

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Traveled more than normal

Change in distance traveled each day

Traveled less than normal

Traveled more than normal

Change in distance traveled each day

Traveled less than normal

Traveled more than normal

Change in distance traveled each day

Traveled less

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Note: Uses a three-day moving average.

The coronavirus pandemic has ground America to a halt from coast to coast. But not all states have reacted the same way or to the same degree, despite warnings from health experts that drastic measures are needed to slow the spread.

The impact of social distancing and work-from-home measures has been captured using data on smartphone movements, an analysis of which was provided to the Times Opinion section by Descartes Labs, a geospatial analysis company.

The data shows how states hit hard by the virus, like New York, California and Washington, have seen travel plummet. But other states with fewer confirmed infections have seen smaller declines, presenting challenges for controlling the spread of the virus.

Travel declined in all states as the number of confirmed cases grew

March 9

Note: Uses a three-day moving average. States are color-colored using the Cook Partisan Voter Index, which shows how strongly states lean toward Democrats or Republicans compared to the country as a whole. Confirmed cases reflect those identified by The New York Times.

People tend to isolate and practice social distancing when they feel an imminent threat. But health experts argue that states without many confirmed infections should react as though the virus is already widespread — because it probably is.

“The cases we see today reflect transmission that has happened in the past,” said Ashleigh Tuite, an epidemiologist at the University of Toronto. “We have to be able to anticipate what is to come.”

To measure how social distancing has changed our behavior, analysts looked at how far people travel each day using smartphone G.P.S. signals, calculating an average distance for each county and state. On a normal day, people might commute for an hour to work or drive across town to drop their kids off at school. But after many lawmakers encouraged residents to stay put, closing workplaces and most schools in the process, the data shows travel swiftly declining in many counties.

Data collected from smartphones can be imprecise and noisy, especially in smaller counties where fewer users share their location. Even still, the analysis offers one of few ways to measure how the country is reacting to the crisis in near-real-time.

The South and Midwest lag behind

Change in distance traveled March 18-20

-60% or less

+30% or more

Change in distance traveled March 18-20

-60% or less

+30% or more

Note: Uses a three-day average.

The smartphone movements capture one major turning point: the weekend of March 14 and 15, by which point many states, including New York, Massachusetts and Illinois, had ordered restaurants and schools to close. By March 16, as the number of confirmed cases surpassed 4,500 nationwide, many parts of the country finally saw significant declines in daily travel.

Areas in the South and Midwest have seen fewer coronavirus cases so far and haven’t slowed down as much. Places like Texas, Florida and Louisiana saw drops around 40 percent at the beginning of last week, but those numbers have leveled off even as the number of confirmed cases continues to climb. (The total number of infections is likely much higher than what’s been confirmed due to a lack of testing.)

Change in distance traveled, March 18-20

-60% or less

+30% or more

Seattle’s King County

saw declines of 71%

New York was hit hardest

by the virus so far and

has seen some of the

largest declines

California’s shelter-

in-place ordinance

saw movements fall

65% lower than normal

Some of the smallest declines

are found in northern Florida,

Georgia and Alabama, where

the number of infections are

beginning to climb

Change in distance traveled, March 18-20

-60% or less

+30% or more

Seattle’s King

County saw

declines of 71%

New York was hit hardest

by the virus so far and

has seen some of the

largest declines

California’s shelter-

in-place ordinance

saw movements fall

by 65% across the state

Some of the smallest

declines are in northern

Florida, Georgia and Alabama,

where the number of infections

are beginning to climb

Change in distance traveled, March 18-20

-60% or less

+30% or more

Change in distance traveled, March 18-20

-60%

or less

+30%

or more

Note: Uses a three-day average.

It’s also unclear what role statements from some Republican lawmakers and conservative media outlets played in influencing the reaction in right-leaning states. Early on, some conservatives colored the pandemic as an overblown “media-fueled hysteria,” encouraging constituents to continue eating at restaurants despite the warnings. President Trump also downplayed the risks at first, labeling concern over the virus a mere “hoax.”

Polling suggests Republicans have been less concerned about coronavirus overall. But those numbers are starting to change as infections spread and the markets continue to tumble.

The lesson here is that they must act now, before they start looking like New York or Washington.

“People sometimes think that you’re overreacting,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, in an interview with CNN. “I like it when people are thinking I’m overreacting because that means we’re doing it just right.”

See how your state and county have slowed by selecting your state from the dropdown menu below.

Change in distance traveled

-60% or less

+30% or more

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