Even without much of an initial public profile, two Democratic polls from January showed Barron receiving 5 percent and 7 percent of the vote respectively. The same surveys showed McGrath narrowly behind (43-40 percent in the Garin-Hart-Yang survey) or tied (at 41 percent, according to Change Research) with McConnell.
Being close in the polls isn’t new for McConnell. Six years ago, he was running even with or narrowly ahead of Grimes in the spring and summer before opening up a lead in the fall and ultimately winning by 16 points. But the national political environment will not be as favorable to Republicans this year as it was during President Barack Obama’s second midterm, and McConnell won’t outspend McGrath by $12 million.
Sometimes polls can overstate support for a third party candidate because respondents are given the name of an individual. But the surveys demonstrate how the dynamic of the race can change with a significant third-party presence. Libertarian nominees in Kentucky received 2 percent in the 2019 gubernatorial election and 3 percent in the 2014 Senate race, but without the financial backing Barron is likely to receive.
Of course, the scenario isn’t unprecedented. Democratic interests promoted Libertarian Dan Cox in the 2012 Montana Senate race with radio and TV commercials touting him as the “real conservative” in the race in order to siphon votes from GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg. Similar to Barron, Cox didn’t raise and spend enough to file with the FEC, yet he received 6.6 percent of the vote as Democratic incumbent Jon Tester was wining reelection 48.6 percent to 44.6 percent.
It’s the amount of money that could break the mold. Ditch Mitch, a Democratic group officially registered as the Ditch Fund, had $3.9 million at the end of March. That doesn’t include money it will raise over the next six months or that could be spent by Senate Majority PAC, the go-to Democratic outside group for Senate races, or an independent expenditure by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
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April 23, 2020 at 06:09PM
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How to beat Mitch McConnell - Roll Call
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