Donald Trump is on the verge of becoming just the third U.S. president to be impeached. But his allies couldn’t care less about this week’s history-making, legacy-shaping vote.
Instead, they’re singularly focused on the vote that will come on Nov. 3, 2020 — and already choreographing an election strategy that capitalizes on impeachment itself.
At the heart of the strategy from the Trump campaign and the GOP is a belief that the more Trump and his allies embrace impeachment — framing it as the inevitable outcome of a system run by partisan elites — the more voters beyond the president’s base are likely to gravitate toward that message.
“We now have a tangible example of what happens when you elect Democrats to go to Washington. This is what you get,” said Republican National Committee spokesman Rick Gorka.
Together, Trump’s reelection team and the RNC have spent $11 million dollars on impeachment-related ads since the inquiry began on Sept. 24 and they plan to drop another $350,000 on advertising this week, according to the RNC.
Seven party officials, Trump campaign staffers and White House aides who detailed the GOP’s post-impeachment strategy acknowledged some damage from impeachment so far and risks in the months ahead. But they’re betting on their ability to offset those downsides with an aggressive push to use data and polling to rev up Trump voters.
For instance, some polls have shown that impeachment has driven key demographic groups, such as suburban women and independent voters, further away from Trump. A NPR/Marist survey released Monday found that 60 percent of suburban women support impeachment, along with 56 percent of independent women.
But Republican operatives and Trump aides say impeachment has electrified the president’s base heading into an election year. They compare the current moment to last year’s scorched-earth fight to appoint Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Not since sexual assault accusations against the former White House lawyer resulted in the most contentious Senate confirmation process in years have the president’s core supporters been more energized. In their view, Trump — like Kavanaugh — is merely the victim of a smear campaign: guilty of nothing, and targeted only because of ideology and politics.
“This lit up our base, lit up the people that are supporters of the president. They’re frustrated, they’re upset, and that motivates voters,” Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale said in a briefing with reporters last week, adding that Democrats have “ignited a flame underneath” the 62 million Americans who voted for Trump in 2016.
Recent impeachment ads run by the Trump campaign have reprised themes of the Kavanaugh confirmation battle, from the language itself (“witch hunt”) to the assertion that congressional Democratic leaders “are trying to brainwash the American People,” as one recent Facebook ad declared.
But the president and his allies are also finding new ways to connect with voters who might be turned off by what’s unfolding in Washington.
Nearly a half-dozen impeachment-themed apparel items have debuted on the Trump campaign’s website since the inquiry began in September, and a person familiar with the planning said more merchandise is expected in the coming months. Text messages imploring Trump supporters to contribute to the president’s “impeachment defense fund,” or to remind them of the upcoming House vote, have been sent almost nightly since the House Judiciary Committee voted last Friday to advance articles of impeachment against the president.
And senior administration officials — from top White House aides Kellyanne Conway and Jared Kushner to Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo — have eagerly responded to questions about impeachment in briefings, interviews and press conferences.
In 17 “target states,” or states where the RNC has paid staff on the ground, internal polling conducted last week found that a majority of voters (60%) believe it’s best to wait for the election next year than to proceed with impeaching Trump now (39%). The party also says it has signed up 100,000 new volunteers and seen an uptick in small-dollar donations since impeachment began.
“We will continue to milk this for all it’s worth, and we believe that’s a lot in this political climate,” said one Trump adviser.
At the conclusion of the Senate trial, through which Trump is widely expected to be acquitted, many of those volunteers will be looped into GOP efforts to retake the House by tying vulnerable Democratic congressional candidates to impeachment. Currently, these recruits are receiving talking points from RNC headquarters multiple times a week to ensure a unified message on impeachment.
White House officials also expect Trump to weave impeachment into his State of the Union address next year. It will be his first major speech since the conclusion of the Senate trial and some advisers are urging Trump to use it as a vehicle to launch his post-impeachment message, which one administration official said is likely to juxtapose Democrats’ swift movement on impeachment with their sluggish inaction on kitchen-table issues, in addition to arguing that progressive policy prescriptions won’t solve those problems.
Of course, there are risks with the post-impeachment strategy outlined by Republicans. Trump ignored congressional leaders and campaign strategists in 2018 who urged him to focus on the economy and tax reform — as opposed to immigration and sensitive cultural issues — in order to boost GOP candidates in difficult races. And given the president’s current concerns about the stain impeachment will leave on his legacy, it’s possible he could elevate other issues out on the campaign trail instead.
“Time and time again, it is this president that thwarts the plans of the White House,” said Roger Fisk, a Democratic strategist and former aide to President Barack Obama.
Trump also could face charges of insincerity if he claims Democrats’ laserlike focus on impeachment has delayed progress on important legislative items or prevented him from focusing on matters unrelated to the inquiry.
“The Trump White House cannot claim with any credibility that impeachment is keeping the president from doing his job when he tweets almost 100 times in 24 hours, with much of it ranging from mocking a 16-year-old girl to various forms of self-pity,” Fisk added, referring to the president’s recent marathon tweetstorms and his criticism of teenage climate activist Greta Thunberg.
One of the motives driving Trump’s incessant tweeting, according to an administration official, is the president’s belief that the more he repeats something — in this case his claim that “no quid pro quo” occurred when he asked Ukraine to investigate a political rival while withholding military aid to the eastern European country — the more likely it is to reach his critics and catch fire with his supporters.
It’s a tactic Trump repeatedly employed during the special counsel investigation into Russian election interference, so much that his campaign rallies still feature homemade “no collusion” signs.
“We’ve learned to take all of these examples — from Kavanaugh to socialism to impeachment — and build a case as to why it’s important to reelect Donald Trump,” Gorka said.
“We are a battle-hardened and tested group,” he said. “We’ve seen this playbook and we know how it goes, and we know this is an opportunity for us to brand.”
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How Trump's 2020 team is trying to milk impeachment - POLITICO
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