NASHUA, N.H. — Joe Biden entered the presidential race leading in Iowa. Later, he predicted he’d win the state as he rolled up local endorsements galore.
So Biden’s likely fourth-place finish in Iowa would normally put his campaign in ICU, especially when a former no-name mayor of a small town in Indiana came in first and bested the former vice president along with four senators.
But this is no normal campaign.
Iowa Democrats so badly botched their caucus that the results weren’t released until nearly a day later — and even now only two-thirds of the vote is in — making the biggest storyline about a broken app. It robbed Pete Buttigieg of his election-night laurels while allowing Biden’s campaign to limp ahead.
Because of the disarray, “The people like Biden who have ‘splaining to do aren’t ‘splaining,” said Joe Trippi, a veteran Democratic consultant of multiple presidential campaigns.
“Normally, Iowa is like a freight train that would carry winners like Buttigieg to victory and run over a candidate like Biden heading into New Hampshire,” Trippi said. “But instead, the train stayed at the station for so long that the momentum just isn’t there.”
It wasn’t just the Iowa Democratic Party’s caucus debacle that shielded Biden from a terrible night. So did a snafu with the state’s famed Iowa Poll, once viewed as a gold standard survey of the caucus that had such stature it could help give a surging candidate a major boost — while sinking those who are drowning — in the final days of the campaign.
The poll, shelved due to irregularities, also had Biden in fourth.
“We didn’t just dodge a bullet. We dodged two bullets,” said one Biden advisor, who didn’t want to be identified.
Another unexpected and indirect help for Biden comes courtesy of President Donald Trump.
Four hours after Iowa announced its partial results, the political news about the caucus results was set to take a back seat to Trump’s State of the Union speech. The following day, Trump’s impeachment trial will resume in the Senate, further obscuring the Iowa story.
Meanwhile, Biden’s campaign pounded Iowa Democrats all day Tuesday for the election fiasco, drawing attention to the problems and arguing against a partial release of results. His rivals accused Biden and his campaign of trying to draw attention away from how poorly he did.
Before the Iowa results were released, Biden told a crowd in New Hampshire that he did well in Iowa. But he also tacitly acknowledged they would have doubts.
“We had a good night last night in Iowa. I know you think that’s silly,” Biden said in Nashua, N.H.
After the results were released, Biden drew attention to their incompleteness.
“Twenty-four hours later, they’re still tryin to figure out what the heck happened in Iowa. At this rate, New Hampshire might get the first vote after all,” he said, drawing applause in Concord, New Hampshire.
But Biden almost confessed he’s behind, saying “there’s nothing to come back from yet.”
How long Biden can run a not-dead-yet campaign, however, is starting to trouble even some donors, who needed to have their nerves calmed on a Tuesday conference call with the campaign. Biden’s campaign began the year with less than $9 million in the bank — far less than his top rivals — but said he had his biggest monthly fundraising haul in January.
“There’s worry,” a donor who was on the call, told POLITICO. “People feel ok. But not great.”
Amid the concern, the Unite the Country super PAC backing Biden decided to drop $900,000 to bolster Biden in New Hampshire, which holds its primary Feb. 11. It had initially planned to skip the state — in part because it so favored next-door Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren — and spend to stave off the rising threat of Sanders in Nevada, which holds its caucus Feb. 22.
The Biden campaign and its backers still believe that, since he polls so well among African-American voters, he just needs to survive until the fourth early state, South Carolina, which has a majority black population and votes Feb. 29.
From there, the campaign hopes to win heavily black states in the Southeast, starting March 3 on Super Tuesday, and roll up so many delegates that he’ll clinch the nomination before or during the Democratic National Convention.
However, the billionaire former mayor of New York City, Michael Bloomberg, is spending big in the Super Tuesday states and could complicate Biden’s path further.
“You could argue that the winners out of Iowa were Buttigieg, because he actually won, and Biden because he did so badly. But lots of people either don’t know about it or have doubts about the Iowa results,” said Garry South, a Democratic veteran of two past presidential campaigns and numerous gubernatorial campaigns.
Bill Burton, a former advisor to Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, said it’s too early to predict exactly where Biden will end up in Iowa until all the votes are in. But he acknowledged Biden’s luck.
“Well, he’s still Irish,” he said. “Very Irish.”
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February 05, 2020 at 09:18AM
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How a broken app overshadowed Biden's Iowa fail - POLITICO
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