How to watch the Iowa caucuses - Axios

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Everyone can be a winner in tonight's Iowa caucuses, where the main event starts at 8 pm ET and the conclusive results might not trickle in till the late hours.

Why it matters: There's a real chance that different campaigns walk away with different types of "wins."

1. Most raw votes in the first round of voting
2. Most raw votes after the second round of voting
3. Most delegates overall

Between the lines: The current Iowa polling top four are Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders at 22%, Pete Buttigieg at 18%, and Elizabeth Warren at 15%.

• One potential surprise could be whether Amy Klobuchar (currently at 8%) can clear the 15% threshold in a number of precincts.

The big picture: 2020 is the first year that the caucuses will release the raw vote totals, allowing voters in other states to get a sense of how the middle tier candidates are doing.

• In tonight's caucuses, supporters of candidates who fail to secure 15% after the first round will be able to swap sides.
• This will give campaigns and voters alike a tangible example of how candidates in the top tier perform among second-choice voters.

On the ground: The "buzz going around" is that this might be the "craziest — it seems the busiest" caucus in a long time, Phil Chia of Des Moines told Axios' Alexi McCammond and Margaret Talev when they dropped by Lincoln High School, where Chia is the activities director, just after lunchtime.

• Multiple precincts will be caucusing in various rooms at his school tonight — Chia counted off two gymnasiums, the library, three classrooms, the cafeteria, the band room and the choir room.
• While caucus organizers were asked not to start setting up until late afternoon after the students had left for the day, Chia said he got several drop-bys starting around 9 am just to check things out. 

The bottom line: Spot-on quote from Todd Dorman of The (Cedar Rapids) Gazette in a column titled, "Goodbye media. You'll miss the ranch dressing":

• "Iowans don’t always pick winners, but the fear of picking a loser this time is palpable."

Go deeper: The Bernie Sanders surge shapes the Iowa caucuses

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How to watch the Iowa caucuses - Axios
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