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Palantir Stock Is Seen Opening for Trading at About $10 a Share - Barron's

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Palantir Technologies Inc. signage is displayed outside the company's headquarters in Palo Alto, California

David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

Palantir Technologies shares are expected to open for trading on Tuesday at around $10 a share, giving the company a valuation of around $22 billion, The Wall Street Journal reports.

The 17-year-old data analytics firm is expected to open for trading on Tuesday via a direct listing on the New York Stock Exchange, under the symbol PLTR.

The offering will be closely scrutinized. While there has been considerable discussion about direct listings in recent months, there have been only two direct listings of venture-backed technology companies in recent years— Slack Technologies (WORK) in June 2019 and Spotify Technology (SPOT) in April 2018. Neither has been a screaming success. Spotify shares opened at $167, and only decisively moved above that level in this year’s Covid-19-driven tech rally; the stock is now at about $233. Slack’s first trade was at $38.50, and the stock is about $10 below that level today. Note that Palantir’s listing will be followed one day later by a direct listing for the cloud-based project management software provider Asana.

One noteworthy difference for Palantir is that while the company has about 2.17 billion fully diluted shares outstanding, the direct listing only covers 257 million shares. In the case of both Slack and Spotify, all shares outstanding were immediately free to trade. In Palantir’s case, the vast majority of the stock is subject to a 180-day lockup period.

Earlier this week, Palantir provided financial guidance for the third quarter, the full year, and next year.

The company projects third-quarter revenue of $278 million to $280 million, up between 46% and 47%, with non-GAAP operating income of $60 million to $62 million, excluding $54 million in expenses related to the listing, stock-based compensation, and related payroll expenses.

For the full year, the company sees revenue of $1.05 billion to $1.06 billion, up between 41% and 43%, with non-GAAP operating income of $116 million to $126 million. The company expects 2021 revenue growth of more than 30%.

Palantir’s filings show that private market transactions in the stock have ranged from $4.20 to $11.50 a share since the end of June. In a direct listing, the company typically announces a “reference price” ahead of the opening of trading, although that price may not necessarily reflect how the stock trades in the open market. Slack’s reference price was $26, and the stock opened 48% higher. Spotify’s reference price was $132, and it opened 26% higher.

If you use the $10 expected price noted by the Journal, the company on a fully diluted basis would be worth close to $22 billion. That would suggest a valuation of close to 16 times the company’s implied revenue guidance for next year of about $1.4 billion. That is a lot cheaper than, say, Snowflake (SNOW) at more than 100 times current-year sales, or Zoom Video Communications (ZM) at close to 60 times, but less than well-established companies like Microsoft (MSFT) at 10 times or Accenture at about 3 times.

Write to Eric J. Savitz at eric.savitz@barrons.com

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