It is doubtless a positive to see that the Kohl's Corporation (NYSE:KSS) share price has gained some 104% in the last three months. But that doesn't help the fact that the three year return is less impressive. In fact, the share price is down 25% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return.
Check out our latest analysis for Kohl's
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Kohl's saw its share price decline over the three years in which its EPS also dropped, falling to a loss. Due to the loss, it's not easy to use EPS as a reliable guide to the business. However, we can say we'd expect to see a falling share price in this scenario.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Kohl's' earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We've already covered Kohl's' share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Its history of dividend payouts mean that Kohl's' TSR, which was a 15% drop over the last 3 years, was not as bad as the share price return.
A Different Perspective
Investors in Kohl's had a tough year, with a total loss of 14%, against a market gain of about 24%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 1.1%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Kohl's you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.
Kohl's is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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January 02, 2021 at 09:28PM
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Reflecting on Kohl's' (NYSE:KSS) Share Price Returns Over The Last Three Years - Simply Wall St
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