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Quick Fix
Accept it: Sending people money is massively popular — MM remains somewhat bewildered by Republican opposition to simply going fully shock and awe on Covid-relief/stimulus. As noted below, the Biden White House is prepared to drive ahead through budget reconciliation to get the full, roughly $2 trillion package out of the door, including $1,400 direct checks to millions of Americans (to fulfill the $2,000 pledge when coupled with the recent $600 checks).
And it’s likely to happen on a roughly party line vote. Which is really weird when you consider that sending people money is essentially a (temporary) tax cut by alternate means (and excess payments to those who don’t need it can be recouped through taxes.) And nearly all available polling shows that while Republicans are not really on board with Biden, the vast majority of Americans want massive Covid relief as soon as they can possibly get it.
Via Quinnipiac poll: “Nearly 7 in 10 Americans support the Biden administration's proposed $1.9 trillion stimulus relief bill in response to the Coronavirus pandemic, as 68 percent say they support it and 24 percent oppose it … Nearly 8 in 10 Americans are in favor of $1,400 stimulus payments to Americans with 78 percent supporting and 18 percent opposing.”
And a recent Yahoo News/YouGov poll: “The majority of Biden’s proposals garner at least twice as much support as opposition. Nearly half are favored by more than 60 percent of Americans. …
“Of all 20 policies covered by the poll, the two most popular were the ones at the center of Biden’s current COVID proposal: $2,000 relief checks (74 percent favor vs. 13 percent oppose) and increased federal funding for vaccination (69 percent favor vs. 17 percent oppose). A full 58 percent of Americans also support raising the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour.”
Biden hits the gas — Our Natasha Korecki and Tyler Pager: “After two weeks of letting negotiations over a Covid-relief package linger in Congress … Biden hit the gas on Wednesday. The president worked the phones and hunkered down with fellow Democrats at the White House, in what aides described as an overt signal that he wants his massive ‘rescue’ package passed and passed quickly. …
“A senior White House adviser didn’t place a precise deadline on when the Covid relief package needed to pass but said that the Biden team wanted it done urgently.”
Democrats forget the debt — Via our John F. Harris on the head-snapping transition from fiscal restraint being paramount for Democrats to being a huge political liability:
“For younger people, the notion of Democrats obsessing about fiscal restraint may seem like smoking on commercial airline flights: Did that really used to be a thing? Yes, and not that long ago. Bill Clinton got elected in 1992 in large measure by assuring voters that he would be responsible with government spending. And he delivered on that promise.”
GOOD THURSDAY MORNING — OK. Time for the MM Super Bowl contest. Send me your predictions for the winner, final score and MVP. Whoever gets closest to nailing it all will have their name in MM lights as well as set of steak knives (there are no steak knives). Email me on [email protected] and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver on [email protected] and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.
Driving the Day
House Financial Services has a hearing at 10:00 a.m. on “More than a Shot in the Arm: The Need for Additional COVID-19 Stimulus” … Senate Banking at 2:00 p.m. expected to vote on the nominations of Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-Ohio) to be HUD secretary and Cecilia Rouse to be chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers … Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. expected to remain super elevated at 835K down a bit from 847K.
MINIMUM WAGE BOOST AT RISK — Our Marianne LeVine and Burgess Everett: “Congressional Democrats and Joe Biden made the $15 minimum wage a key part of their 2020 platform. But it’s now at risk of exclusion or being watered down in Biden’s coronavirus package, a potential letdown for progressives who have fought for years to raise wages.
“Democrats’ first obstacle: The plan to include it in their $1.9 trillion relief bill could fall afoul of Senate rules. But the bigger problem could be the Democratic caucus itself, where it’s not clear the package has the unanimous support of 50 Senate Democrats that it needs to become law.”
WHEELS START TURNING ON STIMULUS — Our Sarah Ferris, Caitlin Emma, and Heather Caygle: “Biden met with Democrats on Wednesday as the House took its first step toward passing his sprawling $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package through Congress without any Republican help.
“The lower chamber approved a budget measure in 218-212 vote, directing a dozen committees to start drafting the pieces of Biden’s bill, including $1,400 stimulus checks, $350 billion in state and local aid and more controversial provisions, like a $15 minimum wage hike. Biden told Democrats earlier on Wednesday that he’s open to refining key elements of his nearly $2 trillion proposal, while stressing the urgency of delivering a massive relief bill quickly to the pandemic-stricken nation.”
Markets
MAJOR STOCK INDEXES END WITH MODEST GAINS — AP’s Damian J. Troise and Alex Veiga: “Stocks closed modestly higher on Wall Street Wednesday as investors turn their focus to some strong earnings reports from Big Tech companies and hopes for getting more economic stimulus passed in Washington.
“Investors also continue to watch shares of companies such as GameStop and AMC Entertainment, which have been targets of a community of online investors seeking to push them higher at the expense of hedge funds who bet the stocks would fall. The S&P 500 rose 0.1 percent. Google’s parent company, Alphabet, jumped after reporting a blowout quarter as its digital advertising machine regained momentum.”
SEC HUNTS FOR FRAUD IN SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS HYPING GAMESTOP — Bloomberg’s Benjamin Bain and Daniel Avis: “U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission investigators are combing social media and message board posts for signs that fraud played a role in dizzying stock swings for GameStop Corp., AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. and other companies …
“The scrutiny is being done in tandem with a review of trading data to assess whether such posts were part of a manipulative effort to drive up share prices, said the people, who requested anonymity because the review isn’t public. The regulator is specifically on the hunt for misinformation meant to improperly tilt the market, the people said.”
Fly Around
MINORITY-OWNED FIRMS HURT BY COVID WILL BE FOCUS FOR SBA NOMINEE — WSJ’s Amara Omeokwe: “Biden’s pick to lead the Small Business Administration, Isabel Guzman, pledged to ensure the Paycheck Protection Program and other initiatives reach minority-owned businesses and those in underserved communities during testimony in her Senate confirmation hearing.
“‘There are many communities that face barriers to capital or have experienced historic racism or barriers that have prevented them from building the wealth that’s needed for accessing capital,’ Ms. Guzman said Wednesday during the hearing held by the Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship.”
And many minority-owned businesses are still struggling to access credit — Reuters’ Jonnelle Marte: “The vast majority of U.S. small businesses took a hit to their revenue last year because of the coronavirus pandemic, with minority-owned businesses struggling the most and worrying more about accessing credit, according to a Federal Reserve survey released on Wednesday.
“The survey, which was conducted in September and October - after the first two rounds of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) had closed to new applicants and before Congress had finalized a nearly $900 billion aid package - showed many small businesses worried they would not survive without government help.”
FED SURVEY: MOST SMALL FIRMS BELOW PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS — WSJ’s Michael S. Derby: “America’s small businesses remain under stress from coronavirus pandemic disruptions, and many of them say continued government support is crucial to their survival, according to a new report from the Federal Reserve’s 12 regional banks released on Wednesday.
“Just under 90 percent of companies surveyed by the Fed banks said business had not returned to pre-pandemic levels almost a year after the crisis began. Of those that lost ground, 30 percent said that without more government aid, their companies might not survive, the report said.”
TRUMP’S BANKER AT DEUTSCHE BANK OUSTED FOR A REAL ESTATE DEAL — NYT’s David Enrich: “Former President Donald J. Trump’s longtime banker at Deutsche Bank was pushed out of her job in December following an internal investigation that concluded that she did business with a client without properly disclosing it, according to regulatory records that were made public on Wednesday.
“Deutsche Bank’s review found that Rosemary Vrablic, a senior private banker and managing director in its wealth management business in New York, ‘engaged in undisclosed activities related to a real estate investment,’ including buying a property ‘from a client-managed entity,’ the bank said in records filed with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.”
FED’S BULLARD SAYS STOCKS NOT A WORRY — Bloomberg’s Steve Matthews: “Rising U.S. stock prices — highlighted by wild trading in GameStop Corp. — don’t raise financial-stability concerns and there’s no hurry for the central bank to slow its massive bond buying, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said.
"‘We are still in the middle of a crisis, so it’s too early to initiate that discussion,’ Bullard told reporters Wednesday after a speech to the CFA Society St. Louis. He said he would ‘look for leadership from the chair as to when we would want to initiate a discussion about that.’”
Bullard also said he sees ‘very strong’ economic growth as Covid eases this year — Reuters: “The coronavirus pandemic should ease over the first half of the year and give way to ‘very strong’ U.S. economic growth during 2021, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Wednesday.
“‘The health crisis will wane in the months ahead’ as more people are vaccinated, Bullard said. As it does, families will be able to tap an ‘exceptionally high’ level of savings and financial resources in hand after a year in which government programs pumped trillions of dollars into the economy.”
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