Tee Higgins is one of the best up-and-coming wide receivers in the NFL and can go off in any matchup. However, there’s some sneaky value in betting the Under on his receptions on Sunday.
Over a seven-game stretch since Week 13, Joe Burrow has been torching opposing defenses to the tune of a median 348 passing yards. However, Higgins has hauled in six or more catches in just three of those games. With Burrow’s passing yard prop around 287.5 as of writing, Higgins will need to see a fairly significant rise in target share to clear 5.5 receptions.
Higgins’ target share seems more likely to take a hit against the Chiefs. Burrow could be forced to throw underneath more thanks to a leaky offensive line, as evidenced by his 4.5 average depth of target last week — the lowest of the eight quarterbacks in the divisional round. That wouldn’t bode well for Higgins.
When Burrow has faced pressure, it has resulted in a minus-5.6 percent target share drop for Higgins — the biggest drop on the team. Tyler Boyd, C.J. Uzomah, Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine are more likely to benefit from the added pressure.
I’m projecting Higgins for 4.9 receptions and a median of 62.5 receiving yards. Considering he profiles as a downfield threat, I am much more comfortable attacking his reception prop than I am his yardage prop (due to the potential for a couple of downfield targets, capable of a massive gain, but lower odds of completion).
The play: Tee Higgins, Under 5.5 receptions.
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January 30, 2022 at 05:33PM
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Bengals vs. Chiefs prediction: Tee Higgins won't get his share - New York Post
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