After pitching a total of just two innings since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2020, it initially seemed like a no-brainer for Noah Syndergaard to accept the one-year, $18.4 million qualifying offer to return to the Mets in 2022.
But not so fast. As of this morning on Monday, Nov. 15, Syndergaard had yet to make a decision on whether he will accept or reject the qualifying offer from the Mets, a source told Inside the Mets.
With the Nov. 17 deadline looming for players to notify their teams of which direction they intend to pursue, either sign the offer or elect free agency, Syndergaard accepting the QO is no sure-thing.
That is because the starting pitching market is expected to be strong this winter, and we could see a lot of movement in this area prior to the expiring collective bargaining agreement on Dec. 1.
Exhibit A: now former Boston Red Sox left-handed starter Eduardo Rodriguez signed a five-year, $77 million deal with the Detroit Tigers, which includes an opt-out after year-two. The Tigers also forfeited their second draft pick since Rodriguez rejected the Red Sox qualifying offer.
Rodriguez had a 4.74 ERA and 3.32 FIP with 185 strikeouts across 31 starts last season for the Red Sox. In his final 12 appearances [11 starts], Rodriguez pitched to a 3.26 ERA.
The 28-year-old also finished sixth in the AL Cy Young race in 2019, where he posted a 19-6 record and 3.81 ERA.
The Rodriguez contract officially broke the ice and set the market for what should be a rich offseason for free agent starters such as Max Scherzer, Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman, Robbie Ray and Justin Verlander.
Although Syndergaard's health over the past two seasons could make teams reluctant to hand him a long-term deal, the industry is well aware of his upside and he is still just 29-years-old.
His last full season in the majors came in 2019, where he went 10-8 with 4.28 ERA, a 3.60 FIP and 202 strikeouts across 32 starts. And he has proven to be a top of the rotation starter in the past, finishing eighth in the Cy Young voting in 2016 while producing a 3.03 ERA and 2.80 FIP in 2018.
For his career, Syndergaard holds a record of 47-31 with a 3.32 ERA and 2.93 FIP in 120 starts.
The Mets extended the QO to Syndergaard on Nov. 6, and he has until Wednesday to accept or reject it.
In the meantime, players are allowed to speak with other teams to figure out their specific market and gauge external interest.
While some see it as an overpay to give Syndergaard $18.4 million next season given his uncertainty health-wise, he could still wind up getting a multi-year deal from someone.
If Syndergaard were to reject the QO, the Mets could still re-sign him to a different type of deal, but they will likely have competition.
Luckily, Syndergaard made it clear in late-September that he does not wish to leave the Mets or New York and was "fairly confident" an agreement would be reached.
That being said, if he can draw a long-term contract that pays him close to what Rodriguez received [$15.4 million AAV], it might be a safer bet for Syndergaard to take it considering there is no guarantee he stays healthy or reverts back to his dominant form on a one-year prove it deal next year.
In the very least, Syndergaard could essentially reject the QO and wait it out to see what else he can get as a free agent. But if the right offer isn't there, he could still return to the Mets on a one-year contract to prove himself and rebuild his value before re-entering the market in 2023.
If Syndergaard decides to go this route, he will have to be sure that he can find a team prior to a potential work stoppage on Dec. 2, which doesn't leave him with much time.
Instead, he could bet on himself, as Marcus Stroman did last season. By accepting the Mets' qualifying offer, he would eliminate the possibility of having to wait until after a new CBA is agreed upon to sign a deal, which might not happen until February.
For now, Syndergaard is said to still be weighing his options with two days left to make a decision.
As The Athletic reported last week, both Stroman and Syndergaard are on the Los Angeles Angels' radar.
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